Russia may opt for institutional combat strategy; Eurobond conflict looms
Six weeks out from local elections, political maneuvers – the exit of a minor coalition partner and rumours of a merger between heavyweight parties – speak volumes in the headlines but are strategically insignificant.
We expect Avangard to announce plans to restructure its USD 200 mln Eurobond due in October 2015, following in the footsteps of other Ukrainian issuers that have successfully re-profiled notes this year. The market looks to already be pricing the move in. Avangard has faced challenges over the past year
Fresh data releases show the pace of Ukraine’s economic decline has decelerated considerably over the past months (see top chart on the left). Against this backdrop, the mood among commentators and forecasters has become much less negative (perhaps even a touch positive) and they’ve now turned to